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Ну дефолта России, положим, ждать ещё очень долго, ибо внешний долг относительно невелик (пока). Рост стоимости CDS скорее показывает отношение инвесторов к России, чем реальный риск дефолта. Но с заголовком топика я вполне согласен.

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Инвесторы в марте верят в российские активы меньше, чем в рынки Коста-Рики и других стран с "мусорным" уровнем суеренных рейтингов: стоимость страховки от неисполнения суверенных обязательств ([url=http://calvera.ru/forum/viewtopic.php?t=199]кредитные дефолтные свопы, CDS[/url]) России подскочила до 10-месячного пика в 278 базисных пунктов (б.п.), сообщает агентство Bloomberg.

Таким образом, котировки CDS на российские бумаги сейчас выше, чем для стран с рейтингом от S&P на три ступени ниже.

Если исходить из цены кредитных дефолтных свопов, Коста-Рика и Гватемала являются более надежными заемщиками, хотя валовой внутренний продукт обеих стран составляет лишь около 5% ВВП России и они не располагают существенными золотовалютными резервами. Застраховать бумаги Венгрии, испытывающей серьезные финансовые проблемы, или Португалии, едва оправившейся от долгового кризиса, также можно дешевле, чем российские.

Даже Нигерия, которую отделяют от российского уровня рейтингов сразу три ступени, в данный момент пользуется б[i]о[/i]льшим доверием инвесторов.

В ходе торгов в понедельник котировки 5-летних CDS на российские гособлигации опустились до 268 б.п. С начала марта они выросли на 77 б.п., тогда как в мае 2013 года достигали рекордно низких 128 б.п.

На прошлой неделе рейтинговые агентства рейтинговые агентства Standard & Poor's и Fitch Ratings пересмотрели свои прогнозы по российскому
суверенному рейтингу со стабильного на негативный, подтвердив при этом рейтинг "BBB", который находится на второй снизу ступени инвестиционного уровня.

Присоединение Крыма может ускорить отток капитала и ослабить "и без того стагнирующую экономику" страны на фоне усиления санкций со стороны США и Евросоюза, сообщило S&P.

Марко Руйхер из гаагской ING Investment Management, управляющей облигациями развивающихся стран на $8 млрд, не исключает, что "Россия может потерять свой инвестиционный рейтинг, и тогда некоторые инвесторы будут вынуждены продать российские бумаги".