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Рост экономики РФ в 2013 году резко замедлится и составит 1,3%, говорится в докладе Европейского банка реконструкции и развития (ЕБРР), опубликованном на сайте организации. В аналогичном докладе в мае 2013 года ЕБРР прогнозировал рост экономики РФ по итогам 2013 года на уровне 1,8%. Рост экономики РФ, по прогнозу ЕБРР, только частично восстановится в 2014 году и составит 2,5% (в мае ЕБРР прогнозировал рост на уровне 3% в 2014 году).

Замедление, по мнению авторов доклада, является следствием продолжающихся затруднений в мировой экономике — в частности, спада в еврозоне и снижающейся ценой на нефть. Уровень инвестиций в экономику РФ остается пониженным, а отток капитала сохраняется. "Это может частично отражать озабоченность по поводу качества деловой среды и эффективной стоимости инвестиций", — говорится в докладе.

[attachment=0]Real_GDP.png[/attachment]

Согласно докладу, восстановление роста в 2014 году возможно в условиях мягкой бюджетной политики, включая рост расходов на большие государственные инфраструктурные проекты. Однако, отмечает ЕБРР, пространство для фискального маневра ограничено ценой на нефть, необходимой для того, чтобы сбалансировать бюджет. "Чтобы ускорить приток инвестиций, снизить зависимость экономики от нефтегазовых доходов и обеспечить рост ВВП до более чем 3% необходимо провести структурные реформы и улучшить бизнес-климат", — говорится в докладе.

ЕБРР в целом ухудшил прогноз роста экономик стран, в которые он инвестирует (Центральная, Юго-Восточная, Восточная Европа, страны Балтии, Центральная Азия, страны Южного и Восточного Средиземноморья) до 2% в 2013 году с 2,2%, прогнозировавшихся в мае 2013 года. Прогноз роста на 2014 год ухудшен до 2,8% с прогнозировавшихся ранее 3,2%.

Минэкономразвития пока не меняет прогноз роста ВВП РФ в 2013 году на уровне 1,8%, говорил в конце октября замглавы министерства Андрей Клепач. Он, однако, отмечал, что при сохранении текущей динамики темпы роста могут быть ниже 1,5%.