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Похоже, фондовый рынок устал от отличных новостей, и двинул вертикально вниз прямо с открытия.

День [s]абсурда[/s] фейерверков, который начался с неожиданного снижения европейским центробанком ключевой процентной ставки на 0,25% (в два раза), получил второе дыхание после опубликования предварительной оценки роста ВВП США за III квартал, которая составила 2,8% против ожидавшихся 2,0% годовых.

На первый взгляд, это не очень хорошая новость для тех, кто жаждет продолжения [s]банкета[/s] QE3, так как ФРС может пересмотреть объём программы скупки активов при таком-то впечатляющем росте экономики США. Однако, более детальный анализ опубликованной статистики показывает, что в то время как ВВП вырос максимальными темпами за последний год, потребительские расходы — основная движущая сила американского экономического роста — выросли лишь на 1,5%, что ниже ожидавшихся 1,6%. Из 2,84% роста ВВП потребительские расходы составляют лишь 1,04%, это самое низкое значение за последние без малого 2 года (со II квартала 2011).

Далее, инвестиции в основной капитал — рост лишь на 0,63%, что в полтора раза хуже чем в прошлом квартале (0,96%). За счёт чего же рост? Товарные запасы, традиционно незначительный компонент в объёме ВВП, на этот раз добавили к ВВП 0,83% (почти треть), удвоившись относительно показателя прошлого квартала, составлявшего 0,41%. Сальдо торгового баланса плюс ещё 0,3%, и, наконец, расходы правительства добавили скромные 0,04% — первый позитивный вклад за последний год.

[attachment=0]US_Q3_GDP.jpg[/attachment]

Короче говоря, маловато позитива для рынка быков. Американский потребитель очень слаб, в то время как экономисты рапортуют об увеличении темпов роста экономики США. Но зато у нас есть ФРС и её печатный станок, поэтому show must go on...